Who will win the 2016 U.S. presidential election and why?

 

Regardless of the polls, it's safe to say that by July most people (around 80%) have made up their mind on who they would rather not see in office.

The question then is really who is more apt to sit out this election and who (voters) are most threatened by which candidate. Finally an important question for Trump will be where can he make headway for Republicans and conservatives that they couldn't before in 2008 and 2012.

We always have to remember that a Presidential election is not a general election in the simple sense. It's states by state elections for national representatives. Besides 2 States (NE and ME), every other state is a winner-take-all state so winning the majority in a state ensures all the electoral delegate the state has.

The problem starts quickly for Trump, of the top 5 most populated States, CA, TX, NY, FL, IL Trump is only guaranteed to win one, TX. He might be competitive in FL, but I really doubt he will win it because the large Hispanic demographic is not in his favor.

So Trump is already at a deficit and will be force to compete in states like OH, PA, MI, IA, and WI, which are still largely democratic. The other problem for him are States that would vote republican but won't vote for Trump most famously UT and VA, and let's toss AZ in there as well.

Then there are also states that are true independents and aren't excited to vote for Clinton but will never vote for Trump of those there's CO, IA, and NH.

So you see, already starting Trump is losing 3 solid republican states, and not competing in another 4 states. This is a big problem for him and his campaign seems to lack the answers to these problems that get bigger as Novemember gets closer. I would guess that were it another Republican Candidate they could mobilize the campaign to compete in several states that would be sympathetic to their agenda, but Trump is not this kind of candidate. His ego prevents him from playing the ground game crucial to winning the smaller more independent States.

So no the odds are tipped against Trump, if he doesn't find some miracle he is most likely to lose the election.

But if you disagree with me, I encourage you to look at the Electoral Map http://www.270towin.com/. Play the game, see how and were can Trump win the election. But be realistic, Trump isn't winning NY, CA, OR or MA. I challenge anyone to find a realistic way for Trump to win.

I present you my map. I left 3 States undecided cause they're true wildcards, but even if he won those states he still would lose election.